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2023 San Diego Housing Forecast

Updated: Dec 7, 2023

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Cheers to 2023! A new year is a new opportunity, full of possibility, hope, and potential. Wishing you a great start to 2023, and health and happiness all year long.

Read on for a local real estate update, seasonal tips, and discover lifestyle trends to kick off 2023.


San Diego Real Estate 2023

It’s hard to believe, but 2023 begins my 21st year selling real estate in San Diego. The ups and downs during that time have shown me that no one has a crystal ball when it comes to predicting what’s to come, even though the headline news would make you believe otherwise. But based on our in-depth research and market knowledge, this is what we expect for the San Diego housing market in 2023:

The first two quarters will continue where 2022 ended: extremely sluggish. In 2022 San Diego County saw a 27% decrease in the number of transactions closed compared to 2021. We expect there to be even fewer transactions closed in 2023. The housing market is no longer moving at a rapid, unsustainable pace. Homes are for the most part not selling above their asking price, not selling immediately, not selling with multiple offers, and there is far less activity and buyer competition. Until mortgage interest rates drop below 5.5%, which is expected mid-year after slowly declining, demand and active inventory will remain muted and home values will decline slightly. More in-depth predictions on what will happen to active inventory, demand, and the luxury market, can be found here.

2023 Opportunities for Buyers:

Rents remain high in San Diego (5th highest in the nation). For buyers who have been trying to ditch their rental payments and enter homeownership, the window of opportunity is now open. Let’s discuss creative financing options to secure a home now with substantially lower-than-market rates and have a solid strategy in place for refinancing when fixed rates do decline. We expect rates will be dramatically different over the next 2 years, starting in early fall.

The strong rental market is also attracting savvy investors who are expanding their real estate portfolios. San Diego’s market is still one of the most resilient in the country for long-term appreciation. Talk to us about some new opportunities we are uncovering that bring in solid cash flow and that will be a good long-term hold for appreciation.

Sellers Navigating the 2023 Market:

San Diego is now in a balanced market – where sellers are no longer in control – requiring patience and a well-thought-out marketing and pricing strategy before listing a home for sale. When the need arises to make a move, contact us early in the process. We can strategize together about the best premarketing activities to set your property apart from the others and attract the strongest offers possible.

If you have questions about how the current or expected market impacts your personal circumstances, please call me at 619-890-2877. Through Compass, we have a network of skilled professionals throughout the nation, so your questions do not have to be San Diego specific. Cheers to a wonderful 2023!


Featured Listing in Pacific Beach

2 Homes on 1 Lot

Front Home: 2 BD | 1.25 BA | 719 SF

Back Home: 1 BD | 1 BA | 540 SF

Offered at $1,800,000

Recent Activity


Southwest Escondido

4 Bed | 3 Bath | 0.43 Acres



1 Bed | 1 Bath | 817 SF


Residential Solar Energy

Federal Tax Credit Extended Until 2032

In an unexpected yet welcome move, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 increased the Residential Clean Energy Credit to 30% and extends it until the end of 2032.

This is huge news for solar customers, as the tax credit was previously at 26% for 2022 installations and scheduled to step down to 22% in 2023 before going away entirely in 2034. Better yet, Americans that installed solar in 2022 expecting a 26% credit will now be eligible for 30%. That’s an extra $1,000 in tax credit for purchasing a $25,000 solar or battery system!

Click here to learn more about tax benefits of adding solar. We recommend to consult with a qualified tax professional if you are planning to add solar to your residential home in the future to better understand what benefits you will qualify for.


Local Happenings

San Diego Resolution Run

January 14th, 7:15am Enjoy a beautiful course and water views as you wind through Mission Bay for a 5k, 10k, or Half-Marathon. After the run, check out the wellness village with healthy food, offers and products from our partners. All participants will receive a t-shirt, custom finisher’s medal and chip-timed results! Click here to register.

Carlsbad Marathon

January 15th, 6:15am & 7:15am The BEST and most scenic winter race with the BEST swag! Miles and miles of breathtaking ocean views with outstanding course support and entertainment. Turn your Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend into a run-cation! An iconic San Diego race and one of the most sought-out Boston Marathon qualifiers as well! Click here to register.

Farmers Insurance Open

January 25-28th

Mark your calendars now, because one of San Diego’s biggest events of the year returns January 25-28, 2023 at the iconic Torrey Pines Golf Course. We are excited to welcome fans back to the course for this year's tournament to experience San Diego's premiere social & golf event. Don't miss out on the breathtaking views, world-class golf, and an unrivaled experience at Torrey Pines. Click here for more information.


Lifestyle Tips & Tricks

10 Bathroom Design Trends We’ll See In 2023

Ensure your bathroom is a space of calm and relaxation. Refresh your full bath or powder room with timeless hardware or colorful sinks and tiles. See if any of these new bathroom trends fit your design goals.

11 Best Places to Travel in Winter

New year, new vacation! Though festivities may have passed, there’s still plenty of opportunities for you to keep up your spirits with a weekend—or a week—away. From cold weather activities to sun-filled adventures, there’s a trip waiting for you.

10 Winter Flower Arrangements to Brighten Up the Season

Holiday wreaths and trees may have come down, but you can still keep your home full of florals. Surround yourself with texture, color, and aroma all winter long with easy table top and front door flower ideas.

The 30 Must-Read Books

Start the new year off with a full bookshelf! 2023 has a lot of promising new titles that are sure to keep you turning pages all winter long. Browse the collection of thrillers, romance, short stories, biographies, memoirs, and more!

Noel Wheeler




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