Forbearances and Foreclosures -- What to Expect
“Breathe the sweetness that hovers in August."
– Denise Levertov
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Real Estate in the News
4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures With the forbearance moratorium scheduled to end in the coming months, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures similar to what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four reasons why this is unlikely to happen. 1. There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time After the last housing crash, about 9.3 million households lost their home to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank. When the pandemic hit in March 2020, many experts projected 30% of all mortgage holders would enter the forbearance program. Only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now down to 3.5%. As of July 30, 2021 the number of homes in forbearance stood at 1,894,000 nationwide, which is significantly less than the 9.3 million after the last housing crash.
2. Most of the 1.89M in forbearance have equity in their homes Of the 1.89 million homeowners currently in forbearance, approximately 87% have at least 10% equity in their homes. The 10% equity number is important because it enables homeowners to sell their houses and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create. The remaining 13% might not all have the option to sell, so if the entire 13% of the 1.89M homes went into foreclosure, that would total 246,220 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the national annual foreclosure numbers of the three years leading up to the pandemic: 2017: 314,220
The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures coming out of the housing crash 15 years ago. The number does, however, draw a similar comparison to the three years prior to the pandemic. 3. The current market can absorb any listings coming to the market When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, there was an excess supply of homes for sale. The situation is exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was a 9-month supply of listings for sale. Today, that number stands at less than 3 months of inventory on the market. 4. Those in power will do whatever is necessary to prevent a wave of foreclosures The White House released a fact sheet explaining how homeowners with government-backed mortgages will be given further options to enable them to keep their homes when exiting forbearance. Some of these options include allowing borrowers to move missed payments to the end of their mortgages at no additional cost. For certain mortgages, homeowners will be provided with a roughly 25% reduction in their monthly payment to ensure they can afford to remain in their homes.
In conclusion, when evaluating the four reasons above, it’s clear that the likelihood there will be a flood of foreclosures coming to the market as the forbearance program winds down is slim to none. Source: Keeping Current Matters
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ArtWalk at Liberty Station (Point Loma)
August 7th - 8th
This year marks 16 years of the fine arts show which brings visual arts to the historic San Diego community. With many art shows and in-person events being cancelled for most of 2020, ArtWalk celebrates the return of in-person art events and continues to serve as a symbol of hope for the art community.
Bike the Bay
Experience Bike the Bay, a scenic bayside ride, and also enjoy a rare opportunity to ride over the San Diego-Coronado Bay Bridge! Fun for the whole family! All riders will return to San Diego for a post-ride festival with food, beverages, beer garden, and entertainment. See details here.
Carlsbad Music Festival
August 27th - 29th
Enjoy the beautiful weather and spend your day listening to music, and eating and drinking your way through the village of Carlsbad! Carlsbad Music Festival aims to engage and inspire local, national, and international communities of composers, performers, creators, and concert-goers through world-class performances of adventurous music. Purchase tickets here.
Lifestyle Tips & Tricks
The 26 Best Curb Appeal Ideas for Every Budget Despite what you might think, improving a home’s curb appeal doesn’t have to cost a fortune. There are many tricks that real estate agents use to make their listings look great and sell faster on a budget. No matter what your budget is, there are ways to make your listing shine. Read more on The Close
The Best Places to Travel in August
Is there any month more tailor-made for a vacation than August? The peak of summer is the perfect time to jettison all 9-to-5 obligations and indulge in a trip. If you're hoping to squeeze in a vacation before Labor Day, here are nine of the best places to travel in August.
Courtesy of Condé Nast Traveler